The China Post news staff
Peng Ming-min, who represented the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan's first-ever popular presidential election, said that it is a 50-50 race between the ruling and opposition parties' candidates in the March 2008 poll.
"It is hard to predict who will win," Peng, dubbed "Godfather of Taiwan Independence," was cited by the Central News Agency as saying.
The DPP's present presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, was Peng's running mate in 1996.
Peng lost to the then hugely popular president and Kuomintang chairman, Lee Teng-hui.
Although various polls have shown that KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou is leading Hsieh, Peng said it does not necessarily mean that the opposition leader will eventually win.
In many previous elections where DPP candidates have won, pre-election opinion polls often showed that the winners were trailing their KMT contenders, Peng said.
But he cautioned the DPP against underestimating the KMT's connections it had built up over the past few decades with grassroots agricultural and fishery associations.
He claimed many people have voted for the KMT not because they agreed with its policies, but because of the party's involvement in their own interests through these grassroots groups.
Peng said he has not been involved in Taiwan's politics for a long time, but Hsieh has visited him before and after the DPP presidential primary.
Calling Hsieh a "very good friend," Peng said the candidate told him about the DPP primary.
But Peng said he did not give any particular suggestions for Hsieh's campaign.
Peng dismissed claims that Hsieh and President Chen are not seeing eye to eye over many major policies.
He said the differences between Chen and Hsieh have been blown out of proportion by the media.
"It is impossible for two political figures to agree on all issues," Peng said. "This does not represent differences in their fundamental stances."
"Both Chen and Hsieh embrace the views concerning Taiwan's autonomy. They only differ in the ways to handle certain issues," Peng said.
While Chen has reiterated his administration's caution against accelerating cross-strait economic exchanges, Hsieh has promised to open more trade and transport links between Taiwan and China.
Peng said Chen and Hsieh can express their own views, and the president is not telling the hopeful to shut up.
Although the DPP administration has received much criticism from the KMT for its poor performance, the ruling party is not without any merits.
"Its biggest achievements have been the promotion of a transparent government and the strengthening of the local identity," Peng said.
He said the DPP has also reinforced the right of the people's freedom of speech.
He defended the Chen administration's poor performance by blaming the opposition. He said many of the reforms that Chen has tried to introduce have seen little support from the opposition-dominated Legislature.
When asked if Taiwan and China could find a way to mutually coexist, Peng said the chances are getting slimmer and slimmer, as the world is heading towards a trend of resolving diplomatic issues through military power.
He said Taipei has been hoping to find a way to coexist with Beijing, but China constantly resorts to military threats against Taiwan.
But he warned that if China launched military attacks on Taiwan, Beijing would face "unlimited consequences" because of the impact of a cross-strait war on the global economy.
The consequences would not only be on the international level, but there would also be a risk of the communist government collapsing.
Foreign investors might pull out of China because of the war, stalling the country's economic development.
"This would affect the stability of the (Chinese) government. China knows the consequences very well," said Peng.
When asked about which issues would be the most important for the upcoming presidential election, Peng said the economy, social welfare, foreign affairs and defense are of equal importance.
He trashed the KMT's claims that Taiwan people have living in "hardship" under DPP administration. He maintained that Taiwan's economy remains quite strong.